AFC EAST
Patriots
After a surprising rise to Super Bowl contention last season under new Head Coach Mike Vrabel the Patriots are looking to continue that level of success into this season, only this time hoping to come away with a win to end their year. To get back to this staff, Vrabel has put together a really strong group here that deserves a ton credit for how they turned that building around in just one offseason/season. Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels is well known in New England and for good reason. While McDaniel may not have worked out as a Head Coach either time he got a shot he’s one of the leagues most creative play callers and best play sequencers in the entire league. An extra plus that comes with McDaniel as an OC at this point in his career is you don’t have to worry about him getting poached for a head job anytime soon which is a huge advantage for a Head Coach like Mike Vrabel who is more of a managerial type rather than a play caller. At Defensive Coordinator you have Zack Kurh who stepped in last season for now Assistant Head Coach and former Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams, who was out last year as he recovered from a cancer diagnosis. Kuhr was promoted this offseason to full time DC and Williams looks to take on a new role as an Assistant Head Coach and helping along their front seven defensively as well. It’s a great staff and they deserve a ton of credit for what they achieved last year despite having some considerably big issues throughout spots on their roster.
- While there was a lot of noise surrounding Mike Vrabel this offseason following the scandal that came out it seems the situation is behind them and they’re moving forward. I don’t expect it to impact or change how this team operates one bit considering it was a personal situation and for the most part seems to be dealt with.
Offensively those aforementioned holes on the roster have largely been filled this offseason and I expect it to be a more consistent unit because of it. While the signing of Alijah Vera-Tucker to the O-Line was a very impactful signing despite the health risks the major upgrades came to the receiver room. Despite 2nd year Kyle Williams looking to take a major step the Patriots went into this past offseason with an obvious lack of high end and even starting level pass catchers so the front office made it their mission to fix that issue for their young Quarterback. Adding former Packers Romeo Doubs through free agency brought a reliable X to the unit but still the room lacked that true mismatch or game changer and that’s where the AJ Brown trade comes. After a rocky and drama filled season in Philadelphia Brown looks to be rejuvenated in camp with the Patriots and his former Head Coach Mike Vrabel. While last year was far from the best we’ve seen from Brown the talent and ability is still clearly there, so long as he is bought in and accepting of his role. With Vrabel at Head Coach and a lack of friction between Brown and his new Quarterback I really don’t foresee any issues that would cause a situation like last year and Philly and I fully expect Brown to be back to his old self, especially considering how well he fits into this offense. With Doubs largely lining up at X I expect to see Brown playing in the slot and off the ball the majority of the game which should open up more consistent targets and in turn keep Brown happy. This passing game with all the new weapons and Maye going into his second year of Josh McDaniels’s system should take off even more than last season and more importantly it should be a more consistent and balanced attack. Along with the passing attack I expect to see some growth within the run game as well! The previously mentioned addition of Vera-Tucker at Guard moves second year IOL Jared Wilson back to his stronger position of Center. They also drafted rookie Tackle Caleb Lomu in the 1st round which provides more depth along their O-Line/Tackle position that desperately needed it last year. On top of it all they also added one of the best Fullbacks in the league in Reggie Gilliam which should be a major addition for Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson in the backfield. Speaking of Henderson I also expect him to take a step from last year and provide more stable play down to down and hopefully he’s able to regain his effectiveness as a pass protector from college and find his way on the field more on passing downs as well. This offense had a ton of success last season in large part due to Drake Maye and his ability to attack down the field but I expect this unit to be far more consistent down to down than they were last year. Which if New England is able to find more consistency on the offensive side of the ball and still strike down the field with Maye and his newly acquired weapons this could be the best offense in the league next season. The one concern I do have with this unit is the O-Line and in large part due to their health. While the starting five on paper is a really solid unit Will Campbell suffered a major injury last year that cause him to miss significant time and be a shell of himself in the playoffs, Alijah Vera-Tucker has missed 42 of 85 possible games throughout his career, and Morgan Moses is 35 years old and not exactly the epitome of health throughout his career either. The O-Line has the ability to be a plus unit but if two of those guys go down it could be ugly quick if they’re unable to round out their depth throughout camp and preseason.
Last season was a prototypical Mike Vrabel coached team on the defensive side of the ball. New England may not have had the most talent rich roster but their stars shined and made themselves know week to week and through disciplined team play and being a hard nosed unit overall this group were incredibly hard to beat. Those previously mentioned stars should continue to play at a high level and keep their status quo of All Pro level impact with those guys being Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore, and Milton Williams. Around them the front office went out and really did a great job of rounding out the roster with veteran and rookie additions. Kevin Byard III similar to AJ Brown came to reunite with former Head Coach Mike Vrabel and while Byard may not be at the All Pro level he once was in Tennessee his impact will be felt with his ability to constantly find the ball on the back end and in turn create takeaways for the defense. But where I get really excited for this unit is the additions to the Edge group. While they may not be the biggest names or highest impact players out there adding Dre’Mont Jones and rookie Gabe Jacas to the Edge room should provide them with a more consistent down to down impact as Jacas is a incredibly hard nosed Edge defender and Jones adds a nice pop of pass rush with a unique build for an Edge as well. I also expect progression from young players like Elijah Ponder and Bradyn Swinson that should round out this group quite well. My only concern here is they still lack that true consistent winner off the Edge and while I like Harold Landry III I wouldn’t venture to say he’s that anymore. On the bright side what they lack in true Edge winners they make up for with Barmore and Williams along the IDL. I expect this defense to be right around where they were last year but the additions at Edge and Kevin Byard III at Safety does raise their ceiling for me!
Overall I’m really impressed with how they rounded this roster out over this last offseason and I’m excited to see if they can rebound from the Super Bowl loss last season. It’s obvious they’re a better team on paper but everyone has the book on them now and will be chasing after their success so it’ll be up to them to not falter and continue to chase after what they came so close to last year, the Super Bowl!
Prediction
10 – 14 Wins – Super Bowl Hopeful
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Bills
After nine seasons former Head Coach Sean McDermott was fired and his Offensive Coordinator over the past two seasons, Joe Brady, is now in the head spot. While McDermott had his flaws I can’t say I thought furring him was the right move but we won’t spend much time on that out of respect for the staff that is here. The good news is the staff that new Head Coach Joe Brady constructed is very promising! Brady brought in Pete Carmichael Jr to be the Offensive Coordinator along side him as the offensive play caller. While Carmichael Jr’s offense became a bit outdated and stale towards his last few years in New Orleans his experience in this position should be a big help to Brady and give some veteran leadership to an otherwise young/inexperienced coaching staff. As for the Defensive Coordinator this is where I get very excited! New DC Jim Leonhard has been a name that has been floated around for a Defensive Coordinator position for years in the NFL ever since his success as Defensive Coordinator and Defensive Backs coach at the University of Wisconsin. Ultimately he landed on Sean Payton’s staff when he took over the head job in Denver as a Defensive Backs and Defensive Pass Game Coordinator. Leonhard continued to find success in his two years with Denver including coaching up one of the leagues best secondaries last season. While I wasn’t the biggest fan of the firing of McDermott this was a great way to make up for it and has the possibility to be better, especially in the future.
From a roster perspective the offense is right around the same unit as last year but there’s a few big losses and additions that may lower the floor but raise the ceiling for their outlook this season. The loss of Reggie Gilliam at Fullback and David Edwards at Guard leave some real flaws when the Bills go into heavier personnel which was a real strength last year. I don’t see them falling apart because of these losses but it’s certainly something I’m keeping an eye on considering their replacements are far from solidified starters/contributors. The major addition was former Panthers and Bears Wide Receiver DJ Moore. While I thought the draft capital they gave up for Moore was an overpay considering his down year last season his familiarity with Head Coach Joe Brady from his days in Carolina and seemingly better relationship with Josh Allen than Caleb Williams last year does have me hopeful for a bounce back this season. They also made some lower end additions to the Receiver and O-Line rooms through free agency and the draft that at least gave them “more bites at the apple” to figure out how to fill the loss of David Edwards and well… actually field a competitive receiving corps for Allen next season. With Austin Corbett, Lloyd Cushenberry, rookie Jude Bowry, and rookie Ar’maj Reed-Adams all added to the O-Line they did drastically increase the depth from last year which is always a need when it comes to O-Line. As for the receiver room they also added Trent Sherfield and rookie Skyler Bell which were fine additions but didn’t solve their starting level questions even following the addition of DJ Moore. My problem with this offense still stems from the lack of high end talent around Josh Allen in the passing game. While the addition of DJ Moore does solidify a piece of the receiving corps it by no means solves all of their issues and as much as I like Skyler Bell I’m worried he won’t have much of an impact his rookie season because of the overlapping skillset with Khalil Shakir. You still have one of Joshua Palmer or Keon Coleman playing significant snaps next year which hasn’t been exactly promising during their tenures with the Bills. It’s a fine unit but once again a lot of their success, at least in the passing game, is going to come down to how often Josh Allen can play like an MVP and make more with less.
From a coaching perspective I absolutely love this defense but sadly when I look at the roster I have more questions than I do answers. The one that sticks out to me the most is cutting their starting slot/nickel corner Taron Johnson and replacing him with, at least as of now, Dee Alford. I don’t mean this as disrespect to Alford but I can’t say with any confidence that I would be comfortable having him as my starting slot going into the season despite Atlanta seemingly giving him a chance every year to prove me wrong. The secondary overall is shaky and the one guy that I feel really good about, Christian Benford, has injury concerns every year. The ceiling is fairly high here with Cole Bishop developing the way he has and Maxwell Hairston having the athletic tools to be something special but it’s far from proven, hopefully Jim Leonhard’s impact will be felt sooner rather than later in this area. The front seven has quite a bit of young talent and while it may not be the biggest names on paper I’m actually quite hopeful for this group! Rookie Edge TJ Parker, second year DE Landon Jackson, second year IDL TJ Sanders, 2nd year NT Deone Walker, rookie IDL Zane Durant, rookie ILB Kaleb Elams-Orr were all brought in/have bigger roles heading into this season. You pair this infusion of youth into a unit that already had Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, Terrel Bernard, and newly added Bradley Chubb and you have a unit that has an upside that is drastically higher than anything they’ve had in recent memory. Now there’s no certainty they hit that ceiling and there’s absolutely a world where you see struggles/mistakes up front that you’re not used to seeing under McDermott. The unit overall should be fine under Jim Leonard but I see there being issues from a roster perspective that are too big to overcome down the stretch of the season and ultimately will limit what they’re capable of accomplishing in the playoffs.
While this team has a bright future and at least a high ceiling this season there’s just a few too many spots on the roster that I foresee being limiting factors in the week to week success, especially against the more talent rich contenders in the league. Hopefully they’re able to keep Jim Leonhard at Defensive Coordinator for a couple years so they can establish a culture and build out this roster to give this coaching staff a real shot at a Super Bowl but this year they feel an offseason away from a roster perspective still.
Prediction
9 – 12 Wins – Super Bowl Hopeful
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Jets
The Jets are once again coming off a rough year with a ton of turnover in the offseason as a result. While the leaders of the previous regime, General Manager Darren Mougey and Head Coach Aaron Glenn, still hold their positions both coordinators from last season were let go and in turn so was the large majority of the coaching staff. Head Coach Aaron Glenn is also looking at a new role as he will take back control of calling the defense following a horrific season last year under former DC Steve Wilks. Along with Glenn taking back control of his defense he also brought in new DC Brian Duker who looks to bring his experience of working as a Pass Game Coordinator and Secondary/Defensive Backs Coach over the past two seasons with the Dolphins and in 2023 with the Lions where he previously worked under Aaron Glenn. Bringing in Duker and Glenn taking back over play calling has me much more hopeful for how this defense will perform and be prepped week to week. The hire at Offensive Coordinator on the other hand I’m more hesitant on. While the hire of Frank Reich does bring a veteran presence and more experience to their offensive play calling I was actually quite impressed with former OC Tanner Engstrand and how he managed the lack of talent throughout the roster last year, especially at the Quarterback position. Reich also has been a bit of a stagnant mind when it comes to play calling over his last few seasons in the NFL so hopefully he’s evolved after taking a break over the past three seasons from the NFL level. Another two coaches I would like to point out are Defensive Line Coach Karl Dunbar and Special Teams Coordinator Chris Banjo. Banjo coached up the one consistent and effective unit of this team last year and Karl Dunbar is and has been one of the leagues best Defensive Line coaches in the league for years now. The staff overall is an improvement from Glenn’s first year in charge and while I’m a bit hesitant in some areas I’m overall hopeful for the Jets outlook this season under what feels like a much more professional and experienced staff.
From a roster perspective this offense is worlds ahead of where they were last season and for me it starts with the O-Line. Their young core of Olu Fashanu, Armand Membou, and Joe Tippmann was awesome last year and they I only see them going up from here. Bringing back Center Josh Myers gives them a solid/serviceable option there and while the loss of Alijah Vera-Tucker hurts on paper his inability to stay on the field has sadly made that loss less prevalent and not to mention they went out and added Dylan Parham at Guard who should be fine there for them. While it may not the most impressive unit out there in the league it’s finally becoming a strength for this team which they’ve needed for years now at this point. The next big addition was Geno Smith at Quarterback. Geno may not be what he once was in Seattle but I feel confident in saying he’ll provide them with more consistent and competent play that they got out of Justin Fields last year. The “weaponry” here does present some issues as Garrett Wilson needs to stay healthy for this receiving corps to give them a chance at being a stable passing attack and the youth movement of rookie Kenyon Sadiq at TE, rookie Omar Cooper Jr, and unproven Adonai Mitchell at WR have upside but need to prove they’re impact players at this level before I can say with confidence they’re headed in the right direction. If one thing is for certain here it’s that this offense should be drastically more consistent than last year and hopefully they hit on a few of these offseason additions to reach their full potential. This is by far the most competitive and competent offensive roster I’ve seen for the Jets in a while and hopefully new OC Frank Reich can help them this unit rather than hold them back and they’re able to at the very least be an average offense in the league. They have the pieces to do it.
Similar to the offense this defense is a much more well rounded and competitive looking roster than last year, at least on paper that is. With that being said there’s still a long way to go for this unit before I have any level of confidence in them. To me there’s questions at every single level of this unit with the most concerning being the lack of proven Edge rush and the Safety position. On a positive note the decision makers here did acquire players to at least give this team and coaching staff a chance to fix these issues. They went out and used their number two overall pick on Edge David Bailey and also spent money in free agency on Kingsley Enagbare and Joseph Ossai to pair with Edge Will McDonald IV. Enagbare and Ossai provide this team with high floor Edge run defenders and McDonald paired with Bailey give them more pass rush juice on passing downs, while it’s a solid unit I still think they lack that true high end talent to help everyone else here succeed. As for the Safety position they brought in veteran Minkah Fitzpatrick and Dane Belton to provide them with more stable play at the position. Similar to Geno Smith on offense Minkah is no longer in his prime but he’s a still major improvement over what they had last year. As for the group last year the one piece I am excited about that stuck around is 2nd year Malachi Moore. Moore should soak up every bit of knowledge Minkah has for him and hopefully the addition of DC Brian Duker along with Aaron Glenn being more hands on with the defense allows him to take some steps towards establishing himself as a real piece here. From top down this defense has intriguing pieces and I expect their floor to be much high than last season but a lack of game changing talent or true strength of the unit holds me back from being too optimistic. Once again just like the offense… the talent is here for them to be a league average unit but they have to show me on the field before I have any real belief in them as there’s too many unknowns.
All in all I’m quite impressed with what the Jets were able to accomplish in one offseason as far as roster turnover goes. With that being said there’s still a number of questions littered throughout the roster and coaching staff that make me hesitant to put a true stamp of approval on this team but I have to say I’m a fan of where this is headed. While the Jets may not be in the Playoffs this year I can say with certainty this team should be FAR more competitive and competent than they were last year which hopefully is enough to establish a optimistic and positive view of this organization for the first time in a long time. I’m excited to see how this plays out and I hope for Jets fans they finally have a structure/regime in place that truly has a chance at creating something worth celebrating here, the Jets fans deserve it!
Prediction
5 – 8 Wins – Rebuild / Retool Season
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Dolphins
While moving on from former Head Coach Mike McDaniel and switching to the new regime was far from smooth ultimately I thought this played out in the best way possible for Miami long term. Hiring General Manager Jon Eric-Sullivan and Head Coach Jeff Hafley from Green Bay brings a refreshing and in my opinion more fundamentally strong culture and identity to the building. This bled over into the draft and the overall approach to the offseason where this regime deconstructed this roster to get to get out from under the massive cap hits from underperforming players such as Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. They also moved off of most players that were looking for new big money contracts such as Jaylen Waddle to get their future money in order and on the same timeline as the youth movement they’re creating here. While the roster looks fairly depleted at this point and it’s obvious winning isn’t the priority as of right now I’m excited to see what this coaching staff can accomplish with the pieces that are here. Head Coach Jeff Hafley brought in a an inexperienced play caller in Bobby Slowik to be his Offensive Coordinator which may not be the biggest name or most inspiring hire but hopefully Slowik can rebound and recreate some of the success he found in his first year with Houston. Defensively this is going to be Jeff Hafley’s responsibility but current DC Sean Duggan has experience as an assistant under Hafley and has quickly made a rise up the ranks by his side. I’ll be honest I absolutely love Jeff Hafley running the show here but the coordinator hires as of now are disappointing and are going to take some proving until I feel good about them being in the positions they’re in.
In all honesty separating offense and defense roster wise with this team is largely pointless. Both sides of the ball are in very similar spots from a roster construction perspective. Aside from De’Von Achane, Jordan Brooks, and a few of the more recent draft picks all of the key players for the Dolphins are a completely remade roster. Whether the position is filled with minimum level free agent signings or draft picks from this past offseason the Dolphins roster is largely made up of question marks. Some players and positions groups are more promising than others and some are clearly bandaids for this season while they get their cap cleaned up and straitened out but one thing is clear and it’s that this year is an evaluation period for this coaching staff and front office to decide who will make this team this coming season. The Dolphins are in no shape or form to compete with most teams in the league from an on paper talent perspective but that’s not the goal. Whoever here regardless of position or contract value is able to showcase talent, effort, and the right fit for the culture is going to get another year with this team and whoever is incapable of meeting those expectations will be gone. The large majority of this roster won’t be here in two to three years when this team is hopefully ready to compete at a high level but the ones that are will standout and that’s the goal for this season. I know it’s a frustrating situation for Dolphins fans knowing your team won’t be focusing on wins this year but take pride in the players that show up regardless of the win total this season and play good football.
The Dolphins are headed in the right direction in my opinion and while they may take a couple seasons to get back to being a competitive team from a roster perspective I’m hopeful for where it’s headed. Jeff Hafley has to establish a winning culture and attitude to this building while Jon Eric-Sullivan builds this roster up over the next couple seasons/offseasons so while it may look rough at points throughout this year just know they have a plan in place that hopefully with some luck will get the Dolphins to a point where they’re more competitive than they’ve been in a long time.
Prediction
2 – 5 Wins Rebuild / Retool Season