Can the Colts Defense Turn It Around?
It’s been a rough start to the season for the Colts and their schedule did them no favors. Facing the Ravens and Chiefs to start off of the season was bound to be a test for this team and especially the defense as having to face Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes is no easy test. Now while the season has been tough from a matchup standpoint that’s no excuse for how this defense has played. Just simply from a points perspective they’ve given up 41 to Baltimore in a blowout loss and 33 to Kansas City in an overtime thriller. The most alarming part of all is I can’t think of a drive within these first two games where I felt any confidence in this defense’s ability to get a stop.
Now while I’m not saying the secondary is blameless here, the lack of success for this Colts defense all starts up front, in my opinion. Next Gen Stats currently has their highest ranking passer rusher in Quarterback Pressure Percentage (QBP%) as third year Edge Laiatu Latu at only 13.1%.
In total they only have four players listed above 10% QBP% with those being Arden Key, DeForest Buckner, and Adetomiwa Adebawore. As a pass rushing unit they rank 28th in pressure rate and yet Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo still has them sitting at a 24.7% (20th in the league) in blitz rate. I’m a fan of Lou Anarumo and he’s one of the most experienced defensive coaches in the league currently but between his man coverage heavy approach on the back end and unwillingness to crank up the percentage of the blitz it leaves this defense in a really tough spot. And that’s where the real problems start, the personnel or lack there of in different areas on this defense. One of the biggest issues and I believe reasons for why Lou Anarumo is hesitant to blitz are the players he has at Linebacker. With CJ Allen, Bryce Boettcher, Akheem Davis-Gaither, and Jaylon Charlies this unit lacks any real talented coverage with Boettcher being the only competent players in that aspect as a rookie. That alone drastically limits the blitz packages you’re able to utilize/install as you can’t leave Allen, Charlies, or Davis-Gaither in that much space when playing zone and certainly not man coverage vs a TE or RB. This defense doesn’t make sense together and that’s where comes back to GM Chris Ballard. The secondary is built to play single high structures and as much man coverage as you can afford to play but they don’t have the guys up front to allow for that. I would expect Anarumo to look at more Cover 6 or Cover 9 structures to allow Sauce Gardner to continue to get reps in man/match coverage and while it’s not single high you can support/hide rookie Safety AJ Haulcy a bit easier than simply throwing him out as a two high Safety. While that may solve some of the issues they have with playing straight up man the root of the problem is still very evident, that being the lackluster play up front. I really don’t know how you solve the problems they have up front outside of making a trade/addition that simply doesn’t exist right now. Sure going out and adding Maxx Crosby or someone of that caliber would be amazing for this unit but you’ve already sunk two 1st Round Picks into the Sauce Gardner deal, including this years pick, and even if you were willing to give up more capital those guys are not available right now.
The offense is playing better than I thought it would considering you have Daniel Jones coming off an achilles injury and questions in the Receiver room following the losses of Adonai Mitchell and Michael Pittman Jr but I don’t know how far this team can go with the defense playing like it currently is. The Colts very well may be headed towards a rebuild and it’s unfortunate as this offense has really been a revelation over last season and early on this year as well.
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Has Bryce Young Arrived?
Despite being benched multiple times throughout his young career and dealing with an immense pressure from being a part of a trade that later landed Chicago their franchise Quarterback, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young has persevered and now looks to be headed towards stardom himself. While last year was a productive season for Young it was clear there were still obvious flaws and weaknesses in his game. While it’s a small sample size and he hasn’t been perfect through the first two weeks of this season it’s clear he’s taken steps in the right direction throughout many parts of his game. On tape I see a drastic difference in Young’s comfort under pressure as he seems to have a plan of attack every time when it arrives. Young is also processing through his reads faster, keeping his eyes downfield when moved off his platform, and working to the check down when he’s given no other choice. The best part is the numbers/statistics reflect this as well! Per NGS, through two game Young’s numbers while under pressure are 15/26 for 192 yards, 3/0 TD to INT ratio, 119.4 QBR, and a 15.3% Completion Percentage Over Expected. Where I’ve actually been even more impressed with Young on tape is his ability to operate when facing zone coverage. Through his first three years in the league Young has struggled with processing zone coverage which has led to a number of issues with nonetheless frustrating than him consistently being late to throwing windows. This year it’s a night and day difference on tape. Young is quick to diagnosis pre snap what the coverage call is and when it’s disguised he looks prepared and confident in how to adjust post snap. Last year and throughout his career in the NFL he’s looked puzzled or even flat out lost when the defense rotated or shifted coverage on the back end where as this year he’s quickly diagnosing and getting his eyes back to his progressions. These are the steps that take a Quarterback like Young from being a serviceable starter to a true franchise guy that you feel confident in year and year out as your starter.
Now while I’m very impressed and excited to see this growth from Young it’s not all perfect and considering the small sample size of two weeks I’m still waiting to confirm this is what’s to be expected week in and week out. The first reason for pause aside from the small sample size have to do with the defenses he’s faced through these two weeks. The Bears and Falcons both have significant issues from a roster perspective that may have contributed to Young’s success so far. The Bears lack of high end talent along their front seven and injuries to their secondary have left them with one of the least impressive pass defenses on paper in the league and while the Falcons are more talented in the secondary their pass rush is currently led by former Bear IDL Gervon Dexter, 34 year old Za’Darius Smith, and Samson Ebukam. Even once these defenses get healthy and all their players back on the field I expect them to leave a lot to be desired. The other thing that still holds me back with Bryce is the lack of intermediate/middle of the field throws. I understand due to his smaller frame that there’s certain limitations to his game but if he continues to grow as a processor I would like to see him have a wider variety on his target share. Currently Bryce works the middle of the field but it’s either short throws under 5 yards or deep balls that are 25+ plus yards down the field. If Bryce can find a way to get comfortable and consistently target throws over the middle of the field in that intermediate (10-20 yards)area it would open up the field so much for him and the Panthers offense. I’m not asking him to become Tom Brady in this aspect but if he could work closer to a Brock Purdy type of passing chart (pictured below) I think Bryce could take his game to a really high level. Overall I love what I’m seeing from Bryce and I hope to see him continue this level of play against more talented defenses and even more so with consistency throughout this season.
Bryce Young Brock Purdy Passing Charts Comparison
