Bucs Mismanaged Offseason and The Ramifications
The Buccaneers are coming off another tough fought game but sadly another loss as well. While it’s only the first month of the season it certainly feels like the Bucs are headed towards a rough reality check of what’s it like to be forced into a rebuild. You can build up hope and optimism for this year when you consider Baker Mayfield’s return may be sooner than expected paired with the team’s ability to be competitive game in and game out but ultimately I find it to be clear that this should be a sign to take a step back and reset with the core pieces that you still have here. I’m not asking for an NBA style tank job or expecting anything close to it but the lack of game changing talent and coaching on this team is evident. It’s clear this team is a fun chippy group to watch and that they’re far from an easy win on any teams schedule but I believe they need a reset at Head Coach – Someone that’s more innovative and preferably offensive minded – and a quality offseason that hopefully includes a top pick in the draft and in turn a game changing level player.
At Head Coach I can’t help but think about two offseasons ago where they had the whole debacle/situation surrounding Liam Coen. They wanted him back at OC and were willing to offer up just about anything to do so but ultimately he was offered the head job in Jacksonville and well… he’s made the most of it. While hindsight is 20/20 and it’s easy to sit here and “Monday Quarterback” the results, I was adamant that the Buccaneers were making a mistake letting him get out of the building. I know it’s hard to fire your Head Coach and hire the Offensive Coordinator on his very staff to replace him but it was clear Coen was the “straw that stirred the drink” there. Todd Bowles has always been a solid coach but that’s the very problem. Bowles has shown he can build a solid foundation and culture that guys buy into and his defenses are no slouch regardless of talent but consistently he seems to be too slow to adjustments and out coached in big games and/or situations. Ideally I think you get through this year with Bowles and look to move on for a coach that can bring a more stable offense to the table or someone that can impact the game more consistently with decisions/play calling. The question is who are those candidates. For me I would at Ravens Offensive Coordinator Declan Doyle, Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores, Rams Offensive Coordinator Nate Scheelhaase, and if you’re desperate maybe a second shot for Mike McDaniel despite the Chargers struggles this year.
The roster on the other hand is actually set up quite nicely for a reset/rebuild aside from the Baker Mayfield extension that they just handed out this training camp. The Baker deal is there and will be for the foreseeable future but I also don’t know that the roster is far away enough to make that a horrible thing. Baker provides you with a real deal starting Quarterback in the league and if the Bucs continue to struggle, a high pick could afford them a truly franchise altering player such as Texas Edge Colin Simmons or Ohio State Receiver Jeremiah Smith. While a pick like that is a risk for the future considering you don’t know how long Baker will continue to play a high level with the injury history he has and the opportunity to take a potential franchise guy would be right there someone of that caliber could change your outlook very quickly. You pair someone like Simmons, Smith, or any number of talented guys in this upcoming draft with a solid all around draft class and free agency plus a potentially better Head Coach and you could see the Bucs quickly competing, especially in that division. Overall the roster is already fairly filled out with serviceable/solid players and genuinely isn’t that far away from being a very solid team, if they aren’t already. I know it looks bleak right now and this season could feel very long and stressful for Bucs fans but this team isn’t far away and could be one really solid offseason from being a 10+ win team.
Chiefs, The Evil Empire Returns
After a disastrous year that included not only missing the Playoffs for the first time in 10 seasons but a major injury to Patrick Mahomes and a loss of an All-Pro Corner, the Chiefs we’re headed into this year with as bleak of an outlook as I can remember in the Mahomes era. Obviously a bleak outlook is considerably different for a Mahomes led team than just about any other but with questions surrounding his health and what he’d look like coming back from his ACL injury late last year even he brought a certain level of uncertainty. Now for all the uncertainty that inevitably evolved into doubt throughout this offseason the hope for a new version of this team has not only shown itself but has been fully established.
Over the past 2 – 3 seasons the Chiefs offense has progressively struggled to create explosive/chunk plays and it’s taken a toll on their unit. More than anyone it’s impacted Mahomes, who has had to carry their passing game by being as close to perfect as possible at consistently constructing 10-15 play scoring drives. The focus of this offseason was to fix the lack of explosives but instead of building it around Mahomes special playmaking ability in the passing game like they did in his early career they focused on remaking their running back room. The major change wasn’t so much the scheme or approach to their offense – Although they are utilizing far more under center runs – it was more focused on bringing in a special talent, that being former Seahawk Running Back Kenneth Walker III. Walker has stepped in and completely changed the complexion of not only the running game but the offense as a whole! Through the first 4 Weeks of this season the Chiefs/K-Walk already have 17 rushes over 10 yards which is double what they throughout the entirety of last season when you excluded Mahomes scrambling. Not only have they broken off more 10+ yard runs but Walker’s ability to create space and explosives on his own has been game changing. The Chiefs currently sit at 5th in stacked box percentage at 29.7% yet they’re 8th in rushing yards before contact, 2nd in rush yards after contact, and sit at 2nd in rushing EPA at +16, just outrageous. The stat that really caught my eye and provided the most shocking context to last season versus this season though was in rush yards over expected. Walker and the Chiefs sit at 1st with +196 yards over expected in just 4 Weeks, where as last year Kareem Hunt in 17 games was +11 and Isiah Pacheco was – brutal -50 in 13 games. When you combined Pacheco and Hunt from the entirety of last season the Chiefs would sit at -19.5 on the year as far as rush yards over expected goes which makes this years +196 a 1,000% increase through just 4 Weeks. It’s unbelievable the difference you see in not only the numbers but even more so on the field and the effect that it’s had on the Chiefs offense, it’s night and day for not only the running game but the passing game as well.
This version of the Chiefs offense isn’t perfect but it’s a drastic improvement over the past two seasons already and that’s with Mahomes still getting back to 100% on his knee that he injured last season. Where I have concerns is with the passing game as it’s still a work in progress especially with the recent Tyquan Thornton injury. I don’t worry about Mahomes ability to operate or even carry this passing game at times but the lack of talent in the Receiver and Tight End rooms is a whole other issue. There’s talks about Tyreek Hill potentially returning but he’s also coming off a season ending injury last year that leaves a lot of questions as to what he will look like even if he were to sign to KC. The defense also provides its own issues as to what this team will be able to accomplish this season. As always a Steve Spagnuolo defense is incredibly well coached and tied together from top down but where I see issues for what this team can become is the lack of elite talent up front. The Linebacker room is very solid and despite them losing their two starting Corners in the offseason – Including All-Pro Trent McDuffie – their secondary has looked very solid with their top 10 pick from this past draft LSU Corner Mansoor Delane showing his talent early and often this year. Where I take issue with this unit is their pass rush and their ability to consistently win while rushing four. Chris Jones is still a very solid and consistent threat but the only other person that I’ve seen consistently show up is rookie Edge R Mason Thomas. Overall this team may not have the same amount of high end talent or elite game changing players like they had in previous seasons where they made Playoff runs but they’ve found a way to create a new and so far effective way of putting together a winning game plan. We’ll see if it’s one that can get them back to Super Bowl appearances and/or wins but for now it’s extremely fun to watch!
What I’m Watching
Eagles Rebuild Incoming!?
- The Eagles just traded away starting Center Cam Jurgens for a 2028 2nd and a 2027 5th. Getting a 2nd plus some back for Jurgens is solid value but this OL has suddenly gone from being a strength heading into this season to now being a unit that flat out holds this offense back. This trade is a sign that the Eagles are in a very odd position. They structured their entire team building philosophy and cap structure around a high end core group of players for the next 3-4 years as they wanted to compete year and year out for Super Bowls in that timeframe. The problems started last year with AJ Brown’s issues with Quarterback Jalen Hurts/others within that building and now this year it was Lane Johnson retiring to deal with personal matters/mental health. Both of these decisions created even worse issues on their cap moving forward and trades like Jurgens or others may come in the near future are a result of it. The cap and roster issues were supposed to start after that 3-4 year time period in which they’d have to figure out an immense amount of dead cap and/or continue to push the guaranteed money back further for some of these guys. This was supposed to be their window and it’s quickly come to a close, in large part because they are unwilling to move of a Head Coach that clearly wasn’t the caliber of coach his record may say he is. I don’t know where they go from here but we very well might see a Saints after Sean Payton level reset or Bears when Ryan Poles came in tear down of all contracts sort of approach to this moving forward for Howie. It’s going to be interesting to see where they go from here but it’s certainly not what they were planning on/hoping for when they made the decisions they did to keep this roster together…
