Has Rookie CJ Stroud Has Returned!?
After two frustrating seasons full of up and down play following an excellent rookie campaign CJ Stroud looks to have righted the ship and found his stride once again. As exciting as that is for Texans fans, Stroud himself has to be ecstatic with how he’s played as he declined a 55 million dollar APY deal this offseason in hopes of getting over that 60 APY mark and at this rate he may even reset the market. Aside from the money part of everything though, this is a huge deal for Houston from a football standpoint. While they may only be sitting at a disappointing 2-4 record right now three of their four losses were against the Super Bowl contender Bills, the Super Bowl contender Bengals, and a Cowboys offense that was on fire that game. Now that Houston has gotten back on track with two wins with the defense rounding into form and Stroud playing like a borderline elite Quarterback things are looking brighter than you’d expect for their record! There’s still a tough fight ahead to get back into the hunt for a Wild Card spot let alone a division title but the components are clearly there for this team to beat any other team in the league right now.
Now onto Stroud and what I’m seeing that’s allowed him to get back to playing at his rookie season form and frankly even better than that. First and foremost the supporting cast around him deserves some credit. While Stroud has been outstanding himself the pass protection, while far from perfect, has drastically improved from last year and the “weaponry” when healthy has given him a multitude of options to target at all levels of the field. Now it hasn’t all been positive, the running game is virtually nonexistent once again. The Texans through the first 6 weeks currently rank 26th in run percentage and for good reason. Their big addition to the Running Back room, former Bear and Lion David Montgomery, is only averaging 2.7 yards per carry and has -22 rushing yards over expected on 52 carries. Second year Running Back Woody Marks isn’t having much success either sitting at only 3.5 yards per carry and -25 rushing yards over expected on 58 carries. Overall the Texans rushing attack ranks tenth worst in Runs of 10+ Yards (12), Stuffed % (19%), Team Rushing Success Rate (34.5%), and Rushing Yards After Contact Per Carry (2.48) making for an overall frustrating run game that is holding this offense back. While the running game has been disappointing Stroud has been excellent at making teams pay for stacking the box – Texans are currently seeing the 3rd highest Stacked Box % at 29.6% – and focusing on it which has been a big improvement from last year. He’s doing that by carving defenses apart and doing so while getting the ball out quickly. When Stroud gets the ball out in under 2.5 seconds his stats look like – 720 yards, 81.1% Completion Percentage, 4/0 TD/INT ratio, 114.8 QB rating, and 8.0 Yards Per Attempt. He’s been pin point accurate and most importantly decisive and confident in his ability to make any and all throws. Although it sounds simple he’s also finding and getting to his hot quicker and more accurately than he ever has before, with this Jaguars game being the prime example of that as they brought a blitz 37.1% of the time yet came away with 0 sacks.
The biggest improvement this year truly seems to be Stroud’s confidence and decisiveness. While you can’t necessarily put it into words or context with stats you simply turn on the film and watch play like his first completion to Marvin Harrison Jr (vs Jaguars 2nd Quarter 6:14 1st & 10) or a simple one like in the 1st vs the Jaguars where he recognizes the blitz at the line and rips a slant right on Xavier Hutchinson (vs Jaguars 1st Quarter 7:33 2nd & 4). These plays may not be super exciting highlight reel throws but they show how confident he is in his ball placement and ability to read the defense pre snap. Last year, because of the poor O-Line play, you saw Stroud consistently dropping his eyes when faced pressure and panicking and/or looking lost for answers when faced with a blitz package pre snap. His comfort in the offense has drastically improved going into this second year and when pair that with his confidence right now it’s making for one of the best Quarterback showings week to week right now! If this team can figure out any semblance of a real rushing attack to support Stroud’s borderline MVP level play and this defense continues to round into shape the Texans may be a dark horse for the Super Bowl. That’s a big jump from 2-4 and certainly from their previous 0-4 record and it’s going hinging on a lot to break right but they have what they need to compete at that level, if it were to ever are click together that is.
The Packers Exciting Turnaround
As I covered a few weeks ago the Packers got off to a rough start this season with the same frustrations from the back half of last year seemingly still plaguing them to open 2026. After falling to 1-2 with a blowout loss in their home opener to a 0-2 Falcons team, this team felt like it hit a new low and had no where to go besides down. The Offensive Line was a complete liability, getting no push up front in the run game and getting Love killed with quick pressures over and over. The offense had no answer from a play calling or talent standpoint which left the defense stranded on the field far too often. The problems were seemingly endless and with the season ending injuries stacking up to some of their highest profile players the Packers season looked to headed down the drain and Head Coach Matt LaFleur and General Manager Brian Gutekunst’s job security started to become a true topic of conversation. But since the Falcons loss this Green Bay team has rebounded in ways I thought was impossible within this season!
There’s a ton different ways to start off how the Packers were able to turn this looked to be disastrous season around but for me it all has to start with Jordan Love and the small but meaningful improvements we’ve seen along the Offensive Line from a pass protection standpoint. Now the O-Line is far from perfect as the Packers currently sit at 3rd in the NFL in Pressures given up (97) and 8th in Pressure Percentage (40.2%) but where they deserve some credit is how they’re not giving up quick/instant pressures like they were in the earlier weeks. Adding veteran Guards Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler – Zeitler has yet to play a snap – and starting Travis Glover at Right Guard has brought a level of competency from a communication and pass protection standpoint. As I said it’s not perfect by any means right now and I wouldn’t consider this O-Line a strength. They’re still giving up quite a few pressures week to week while also being frustratingly bad in the run game but they’re not getting Jordan killed with free rushers through the interior like they were through the first three weeks of the season. Because of the lack of free rushers now that has given Jordan Love just enough room and time to operate within this ultra explosive passing attack.
Love has been outstanding this season and truly deserves to be in the MVP conversation with how he’s managed to make as much as he has out of this frankly poor situation. With a “rushing attack” that’s averaging 2.9 Yards Per Attempt and -0.29 EPA/Rush – both rank last in the NFL – the offense is almost entirely on his shoulders and issues don’t stop there. As I covered earlier, the pass protection from the O-Line has been up and down at best and when it comes to his receivers, the Packers currently lead the NFL in drops with 19 according to PFF… You add on the fact the Packers also rank highest in number of penalties (57) and penalty yardage (465 yards) and it’s honestly hard to believe this team has won any games this year, let alone three straight. All of this truly puts into context what Love has been battling through and yet he’s stayed composed and confident throughout the entirety of the year which may be the most impressive part.
Last but certainly not least the defense and how this unit is currently playing has to be mentioned. While they’re still currently missing one of the best players regardless of position in the league in Micah Parsons and have suffered season ending injuries to key players such Edgerrin Cooper and Javon Hargrave this defense has continued to find ways to win. The secondary has been outstanding especially the Safety/Nickel room with Evan Williams, Xavier McKinney, and Javon Bullard who have allowed Jonathan Gannon to experiment in so many ways. Gannon is moving these guys all around the formation, bringing them on blitzes, lining them up along the LOS and dropping out à la Harrison Smith, and a multitude of other roles as well that constantly keep Quarterbacks guessing and off balance. The outside CBs also deserve credit as they’ve done a phenomenal job just executing what’s asked of them. While this group may not be the best man to man coverage unit out there or considered “lockdown” they’ve consistently executed their role without blowing coverages and have done a phenomenal job tackling in space which has allowed Gannon to be more aggressive as a blitzer. I also want to mention their offseason addition at Linebacker, Zaire Franklin. Franklin has been a true Mike backer and leader on this unit and you can see the impact he has every single game. There’s been multiple times throughout this season where Zaire has shown a blitz or pressure, the opposing offense has adjusted with a can or audible call, and Zaire has responded with a check of his own to match the adjustment from the offense. Having a grown up and true Mike backer when compared to last year when Quay Walker was in that role for this defense is night and day and that’s not even mentioning the impact he has had as a leader and culture setter for this unit as well. The front four of this team has also stepped up while they wait for Micah Parsons’s return with players like Lukas Van Ness, Karl Brooks, and rookie Dani Dennis-Sutton all showing up as more effective pass rushers than expected. From players stepping up to the coaching staff making great game planning decisions this defense has been outstanding and by far out playing what they look like on paper.
There’s a lot to fix and/or clean up with this team, especially on offense, but there’s some extremely exciting pieces to build with moving forward. If they’re able to clean up the penalties to around league average, get this running game to improve with Josh Jacobs returning, and continue to grow along the O-Line now that the starting group is set and in place they have a very bright outlook for the rest of this season. The long term injuries to many of their key players – Edgerrin Cooper (Achilles) Javon Hargrave (Achilles) Zach Bako-Bewele (Knee) Jayden Reed (Neck) – may keep them from being true contenders this season but if you get to the Playoffs and are hot at the right time there’s no saying what’s impossible.